[kylebrown]

> Equilibrium is coming.

So yields, returns, and inflation are finally stabilizing as the market matures and approaches its "true value"? Nope, because equilibrium is a concept which works well in the natural sciences, but quite erroneous as applied in economics. This is George Soros's argument in his books about the Principle of Reflexivity, which differentiates social systems from natural ones.

What is happening, is merely that trading volume/volatility has tapered off since the '08 crisis. That's expected; empirically, volatility continues to be clustered and autoregressive (a self-exciting process). Its a cycle that will pick up again (one can expect), eventually.

[clavalle]

But I am not talking about the level of social systems. Of course the market itself is not approaching equilibrium. But the liquidity enhancement market is. There will always be money to be made there but not the bonanza that's existed up to about two years ago.

[kylebrown]

But that's mostly due to the much lower volume and volatility (rather than more competition). When its low, so is the demand for liquidity provision. But that demand will come back with the next volatility cycle.

Actually, volatility is only clustered when measured in calendar time. Its much more constant when measured in event/transaction time (plot price against cumulative volume, rather than date/time).