[mtowle]

Perhaps biased, being something of a Germanophile, but Germany could be the uniquely positioned party here.

If the UK loses its continental influence, the willingness of Euro-based business to respect the Pound (in trade, I mean - their acceptance, online or elsewhere, of the Pound as currency without first converting to Euro) may diminish. Further, London may fall out of the tech industry's graces as a good destination for regional headquarters.

In either case, the UK's loss is France/Germany's gain - likely moreso Germany's because they're already ahead by a bit.

Being an American, I know less than Jon Snow about how EU power works, but if the UK's losses mount and create a power vaccuum at/near the top, Germany and France are leading states even moreso than they were before. What that might amount to, I couldn't say.

[gaadd33]

Isn't Dublin the tech industry headquarters for Europe? The City is still the financial capital for a huge number of markets and I doubt this would be able to shift it.

[mtowle]

>I doubt this would be able to shift it.

This is cheating on my part, but I agree and disagree.

a) Yes, it's unlikely any one event has the necessary inertia to shift a continent's finance capital from one city to another.

b) Everything starts somewhere. No single assassination is likely to start the largest global conflict in human history, yet Franz Ferdinand's assassination is credited with having "started" WWI. In reality, a number of necessary elements contributed, but human history is written in narrative fashion, and scene 1 of WWI begins with Franz, the way most people tell it. Similarly, the last ~40 years have been very interesting, currency-wise, I think, so, it may do to have an eye out for something big enough to light this powderkeg. Since so much of finance is based on trust, in one form or another, an event that dramatically reduces global trust in the dominant parties of the era would be one logically viable catalyst.