| To be fair, OP admits limited knowledge and possibility of being wrong. Also, he/she makes some relevant points, though the overall "Bitcoin is dead" argument is muddled. Most of the points of this post have been raised countless times on the btc forums in the past. The primary issue with this post is that the author doesn't give any reason _WHY_ bitcoin will be supplanted by alternatives- In a similar way, I can say "Google stock is worthless because in a hundred years something better will have taken Google's place". No one would consider that to be a cogent argument. Yes, currently the price of bitcoin shows that there is great pessimism among investors regarding its viability (i.e. a single bitcoin isn't worth $1000 or more right now, which would be the minimum rational value for a successful currency of this type). This is because it is not lost on the bitcoin community that btc is a crazy idea and can still spectacularly fail for a multitude of reasons. I think any rational bitcoin user would agree that the chance of bitcoin's large-scale success within the next decade is less than 50%- This is why the reward for any investment in bitcoin right now is likely to pay of 10x-100x in the case it DOES succeed. However, if it doesn't succeed I believe it could only be because the concept of a wide-scale cryptocurrency is fundamentally flawed (I have yet to see any such flaw) not because it gets beaten by the competition. As for the chances of another, similar, cryptocurrency supplanting bitcoin: I am almost 100% sure this won't happen. The reason for this is that bitcoin is the "javascript" of cryptocurrencies: Any deficiency that exists in bitcoin can be added as an extension to bitcoin and hence can't be a meaningful selling point for a competitor. At best, competing cryptocurrencies can fill niche roles within the bitcoin ecosystem. (For instance, a cryptocurrency with faster confirmations will probably eventually be grafted onto bitcoin payment services, but again only to fill a niche role, with bitcoin continuing as the leading currency.) (The sole exception I think would be if the core bitcoin dev team were to screw up very very badly somehow, then another cryptocurrency might have a fighting chance.) |