[Androsynth]

SF is only like 10% of the population of the SF/Oak/SJ bay area triangle. It may have the best brand in the area, but what happens when the housing prices drop in fremont/milpitas and then in santa clara/san jose and then starts working its way up the peninsula?

I think housing in SF is very dependent on 1) the tech boom and 2) the baby boomers who own property in the south/east bay (but wont sell because they missed out on the 2008 sales price). Both of which are temporal in nature.

SF may always be a enclave of the wealthy, but if the rest of the bay area goes to shit, prices will drop. It may not get massacred like SJ eventually will (after the baby boomers houses start hitting the market en masse), but even those wealthy enough to live there will feel it.

[hkmurakami]

I'm part of one of those boomer families that have owned their house in the SF peninsula for many years (we're coming up on 25 years now), and many of us have no intention of ever selling because prop 13 has kept property taxes very low and selling would mean that we'd only be able to afford a much smaller/inconvenient place for the same upkeep cost.

What will change this is when the wave of deaths hit the boomer generation in the next 10-20 years. Once that hits, houses will be reassessed at current property values, and the house will often go on sale to settle estate taxes and to liquify the value in the house so that it can be split between the siblings.

However, the side effect will be that Peninsula housing rents will rise to adjust to the new higher property tax costs. That's right - we haven't soon the worst of rents with respect to single family homes yet... shudder