[pdonis]

Bret is trying to get people to see what he sees because he knows it will lead to a leap in humankind's ability to transfer knowledge.

No, he's trying because he believes it will lead to a leap in our ability to transfer knowledge. He admits he doesn't know, because nobody knows what will be important in 100 years.

My question is, what if he's wrong? Consider:

(1) If he's wrong, then so are all the people he's expended all this effort to influence. It's not just him going down a wrong path, it's everyone he's convinced to share his vision. Epic fail.

(2) If he's right, why bother expending all this effort to influence people to see what he sees? Why not just use what he sees to actually do what he describes? He has an idea for building better tools for thinking? Great! Go build some and show how they're better. If he's right, he won't need to influence people; the benefits of his approach will be obvious. But, if he's wrong, it will only be he that's wrong; other people will not have wasted their efforts on a blind alley as well.

[espeed]

My question is, what if he's wrong?

"All models are wrong, but some are useful." -George Box.

Models get refined over time. Only the omniscient see the entirety. Newton had an incomplete picture of gravity, but it put us on the path.

It's the fundamental shifts -- the leaps in thinking -- that illuminate new areas to explore.

If he's right, why bother expending all this effort to influence people to see what he sees?

Have you ever been inspired by a great teacher? Great teachers begin by inspiring their students.

"It is the supreme art of the teacher to awaken joy in creative expression and knowledge." --Albert Einstein

"We expert teachers know that motivation and emotional impact are what matter." -- Donald Norman

He admits he doesn't know, because nobody knows what will be important in 100 years.

The residual impact from communicating your insights can last well beyond 100 years, especially if you provide new puzzle pieces that fill in our gaps of understanding, connect domains, and contribute to a more complete picture.

"A teacher affects eternity; he can never tell where his influence stops." --Henry Adams

Someone who did not try to communicate their understanding would be doing a disservice to us all. You never know what pieces someone else may be missing.

[pdonis]

"All models are wrong, but some are useful."

Sure, but all this means is that you and I should both have used the word "useful" instead of "wrong". It doesn't materially change what I said: he doesn't know his ideas will be useful, he just believes they will, and the impact if he's wrong about that is still just what I said.

Have you ever been inspired by a great teacher?

Sure, but he didn't use the word "inspire". He used the word "influence". The great teachers that inspired me didn't tell me what to work on; they just told me I had a lot of potential and I should find something good to do with it. What he's saying is a lot more specific than that.

Someone who did not try to communicate their understanding would be doing a disservice to us all.

Again, he's not just communicating his understanding (which I agree is beneficial). He's trying to get people to do something different than they would have done otherwise. He doesn't just think "this stuff would be useful for others to know". He thinks "people should devote their time and energy to this thing I believe in". That's a very different matter.

[espeed]

So you're pro-"inspire" but anti-"influence"?

Not to go all Webster on you, but the primary definition of inspire is to influence:

  in*spire

  verb (used with object)

  1. to fill with an animating, quickening, or exalting
     influence: His courage inspired his followers.

  2. to produce or arouse (a feeling, thought, etc.): 
     to inspire confidence in others.

  3. to fill or affect with a specified feeling, thought, 
     etc.: to inspire a person with distrust.

  4. to influence or impel: Competition inspired her to
     greater efforts.

  5. to animate, as an influence, feeling, thought, or the
     like, does: They were inspired by a belief in a better
     future.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/inspire

BTW: You do realize your entire thread has been an argument of influence, advocating your point of view?

[pdonis]

So you're pro-"inspire" but anti-"influence"?

When appropriately defined, yes. See below.

the primary definition of inspire is to influence

Ah, you would rather continue to play word games than actually address the substance of my argument. But sure, I'll play.

I could quibble with your claim that the primary definition of inspire is to influence, since in that definition, "influence" is used as a noun, not a verb. But that's really a side issue, because you didn't bother to ask me in which sense I was using the word "inspire" (or "influence", for that matter), or to take into account the context in which I used the words. That context should have made it evident that senses #2 and #3 of "inspire" are the ones I meant, and those do not mean the same as "influence" as a verb.

I suppose, for the record, I should also make explicit that I am using "influence" in sense #8 of the dictionary definition, taken from the same dictionary you used:

8. to move or impel (a person) to some action: Outside factors influenced her to resign.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/influence

You do realize your entire thread has been an argument of influence, advocating your point of view?

I was wondering how long it would take for someone to make this play. :-) Fortunately, it's easy to refute since I just gave the dictionary definition of "influence" in the sense I've been using the term. I'm not trying to move anyone to any action; I'm just trying to explain why the post bothered me enough to rant about it, and then to clarify my position in response to questions and counterarguments. I don't want or expect anyone to drop what they're doing and devote time and energy to something else as a result of what I say. If anything, I hope that people will be less likely to do that in response to "influence", as a result of what I say.

[espeed]

Did you bother to ask Bret in which sense he was using the word "influence"?

[pdonis]

Fair question. No, I didn't, because I had no way to do so; I don't know him, there's no way to comment on the article linked to in the OP, and he doesn't appear to be posting here on HN.

So all I had to go on was the linked article and the context of how he used the word "influence" in it. I have said, several times, that my reaction is my personal judgment and that others' judgments may differ. (I also said I agree with his general point that tools for thinking have much more impact than particular solutions to particular problems.)

And as regards the substantive question: do you disagree that he is trying to move people to take actions that they would not otherwise have taken? That he is trying to get people to spend time and energy on developing tools for thinking, instead of something else?