[nemothekid]

My hunch is OP's calculations are right, but his numbers are just wrong. I have a tough time believing ESPN only penetrates 4% of American Households.

Looking at his sources I think OP's error comes from the fact that he is using Primetime viewership as a metric. I'm going off assumptions here, but I would think that ESPN's major value add is huge number of people watch ESPN at all times of the day. SportCenter, for example, doesn't air during primetime, but airs continually throughout day.

Looking at the Primetime numbers, The History Channel scored higher than ESPN. However I would guess at all other times in the day, ESPN has a much, much higher viewing audience at other times of the day.

[monkbent]

Yeah, I should have been clearer. It would lower the a la carte price, but it would still be a pretty unsustainable number.

[groby_b]

At the very least, you also need to look at how much of the programming is original vs. reruns of already existing content.

I have a strong hunch that if we actually did these numbers, we'd see that there are a few programs that are way more expensive to produce than others. (ESPN and sports licensing fees come to mind).

Which means bundling artificially props up overpriced content - I'm really not sure how you can come to the conclusion that that is good for everybody.