[jmathai]

We're calling the same thing two different names. Luck is probably a misnomer but I think it captures the essence very well.

I agree that you can influence your success but the degree to which you can do that is pretty small for most founders.

[prof_hobart]

The problem with the word "luck" is that it can easily be taken to mean that success is entirely random - any idea, at any time, executed in any manner has an equal chance to succeed. And that's not really true. I doubt very much that this is what you are saying, but it's an easy interpretation to make.

Whereas the word "probability" still implies a level of randomness that is totally out of your control. However good, and however well executed, you idea is - there's a million and one unforeseen things that could destroy your business. But that doesn't mean that you ideas and your execution don't have an impact on your likelihood of succeeding.

Compare the game of backgammon to snakes and ladders. Both have dice in them, which introduces a level of randomness. But while I would describe snakes and ladders as entirely a game of luck (your success in the game depends 100% on the roll of the dice), I would describe backgammon as a game of probablilities - if the dice keep going against you, you're going to lose. But there's an awful lot of skill in reducing the odds of the dice being able to go against you.

[jmathai]

Agreed. Luck is/was the wrong word to hinge my comment on.

[anoncow]

Probability is luck for a single event and simple mathematics for an infinite number of events.