[jaredmck]

Yeah, PECOTA isn't one of the best at all, it just has ranges for variance, which is an imprecise metric as no one knows what he's saying a percentile is under the model. What is luck and what is skill?

Birnbaum is one of the best bloggers on advanced stuff. Tango's blog is the best period as anyone good participating in the "open source" movement so to speak is there pr shows up when they write good stuff. Until you're aware of the work to date, you will be spinning in circles with awful biased errors.