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by gojomo
4781 days ago
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If game results were independent, yes. But lots of things in baseball aren't independent: teams play the same opponent repeatedly in short series, runs of home or away series occur, pitchers rotate, players get injured, teams may slack when overperforming or intensify their efforts to avoid extended losing streaks, etc. Most of all: baseballers are fairly superstitious. They believe in streaks, lucky rituals, jinxes, and the gamblet's fallacy (being 'due' for a win or a loss). So some serial correlation could be a self-fulfilling prophesy. Still, I'd expect tons of other available team stats to outperform the last N game results in predictive power. |
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