[charlesju]

Maybe I have been extremely lucky my whole life, but I have never thought of a startup as being risky.

Financial risk is all about investing your personal human capital and looking for the highest expected value.

When I approached the end of college, I looked at what I was given (mediocre programming skills, some street smarts, a knack for bs) and I realized that my expected financial return was much higher in a startup.

Take 5 years out for example.

Assumptions:

- 10% at 20 M = 2 M - 10% at 10 M = 1 M - 10% at 5 M = 500k - 10% at 500,000 = 50,000 - 60% at nothing = $0 - Total of 3.55 M expected return on my personal human capital

- 100% at 500k (salary over 5 years, being generous) - Total of 500k expected return

3.55 M > 500k. Of course these numbers are personal, and everyone is different, but I don't think they are unrealistic.

[dbul]

Could you clarify how you arrived at the numbers for the five year expected return?

[charlesju]

Just come up with expected exits if you were to start a startup then come up with percentages as to which you think those exits are reasonable.

The numbers I came up with were largely based on my personal feeling of how good I am at this whole being a business-man business, this is different for everyone.