[alexPetrov]

I don't see either the PS4 or the Durango doing much better than the Wii U. I think how much better they do growth-wise will be based entirely on how much money they are willing to burn for proper software exclusives and a reasonably priced console. It is the games that will sell the consoles, and I do not see third-parties flocking to more expensive development costs with incredibly low potential consumers. What incentive do third-parties have to develop for new hardware when the old hardware has a much higher install base?

I for one expect all next generation consoles to have growth rates similar to that of the Gamecube. I do not think it matters much when the consoles launch, either.