[err_badprocrast]

First of all, gangster rap is still extremely popular among youth.

> Well I could share statistics which clearly show a major rise in violent crime by urban youth in the 90s, with a major decline afterwards, and there could be several explanations for that.

Several easy to spot deterrents of youth crime implemented in the 90s:

- Zero Tolerance in schools (automatic expulsion if you have anything that even looks like a weapon)

- If you commit a violent crime as a juvenile these days you're likely to get tried and sentenced as an adult (specifics depending on state)

As for teen mothers, I can't contribute much to that discussion - but the CDC's data on 15-19 year olds shows a marked and consistent drop in birth rates from 1990 to 2010. [1]

> violence, drug use and drug dealing... done by chronically unemployed males who are feeling disenfranchised and without a purpose.

Although not socially accepted, it is often treated as a job; I'd also advise caution in trying to limit drug use and dealing to specific demographics.

On the topic of welfare, you'd probably be surprised how many college students make use of food stamps these days.

1. http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6118a8.htm?s_cid=...

[EGreg]

Yes, as far as the assaults among urban youth, perhaps active policies are able to provide good explanations for the decline in violence. I for one believe that culture usually plays a larger role than is commonly admitted in politics, where the emphasis is often on punishment (e.g. for drug dealing) when the same money could, in my opinion, have been spent more productively on prevention / education / culture change in various communities. The recent Obama administration move to treat drugs as a public health issue seems to be going in this direction.

As far as teen mothers -- yes, overall it's been a drop, but that just underscores the disconnect with what's happening with poor urban youth:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2871086/

"Teen pregnancy rates in New York City (NYC) are consistently higher than in the United States (US) overall, particularly among blacks and Hispanics and within poor neighborhoods."

I think the teen pregnancy phenomenon is part of a larger phenomenon of people having children out of wedlock, and then the mothers raising them as single parents. When it's the norm to have the state provide funds to help raise the children, it creates a moral hazard and affects the culture in communities which are highly dependent on welfare.

As far as actual drug use and drug dealing, I'm not knowledgeable enough to get into details, except to note that the War on Drugs seems to have produced some pretty sad results. 20% of the inmates are in prison for recreational drug related offenses, and the amount of youths from poor neighborhoods is alarmingly high. I would say that this War on Drugs has, among other things, been affected by the negative side effects of the welfare state and minimum wage laws. I agree with Thomas Sowell that minimum wage has held many back who would otherwise have found employment somewhere. However if you're going to abolish minimum wage, you should definitely offer the unconditional safety net in the article.

Welfare is a complicated issue, the most I have been able to understand overall is that it definitely lowers poverty, but its long-term effect on culture in poor communities has been to create a culture of dependence, disenfranchisement, and out-of-wedlock parenthood. The last one seems to perpetuate the first two. This may rapidly change with the internet disrupting education and other sectors, and I hope it does.

I lean more left/progressive but I have to agree that this is unsettling: http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2010/pdf/wm2934_bythenumbe...

And what's most unsettling is that the welfare state in the USA will have to expand as jobs are eliminated.

[err_badprocrast]

I definitely agree about the War on Drugs, and I think the disparity in who gets busted for it is explained in large part by just where police departments focus their efforts. In a rich neighborhood you can get away with stuff that would be stupid to try in poorer areas - for example, walking down the street at high noon smoking a blunt. Good luck getting away with that in the poorer areas where you'll find a cop who's trying to fill quotas around every corner. Related to this is the fact that you're likely to find higher numbers of police officers stationed at schools in poorer areas.

I agree with a lot of what you say here, but I really have no authority to comment on long term effects of welfare or the state of huge cities like NYC (as well as the East Coast in general).

Thanks for a well-reasoned reply!