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i don't think that's really comparable, and especially so given the unique structure (some may say fuckedupedness) of the music industry.. you may be right in that growth in other revenue streams (touring, merch, royalties, ...) potentially offset, or maybe even exceed, the decline in media sales when looking at the space in aggregate. however, that shift has major implications for different players in the space, and that shouldn't be ignored. things may be working out better for superstars like madonna (and that’s not necessarily true; i really don’t know) given their ability to draw massive crowds willing to pay-up for the experience; smaller artists however lose out, as do the record companies.. historically, record companies took the lion share of media sales and artists (frankly speaking) got fucked. while the model has evolved, slowly, that’s still largely the same today, though things have now flipped - where the media sales, that the record companies depend on, have collapsed, and the other streams artists mainly depend on have taken-off.. love em or hate em (likely the latter), record companies do provide real value and remain an essential player in the space, helping discover and get good music out and supporting pre-madonna-level artists early-on, and their losses shouldn't be viewed as a win for the little guy, as it most certainty not. i'd say this long-standing disconnect in the industry is why it’s taken nearly two decades to adjust to a disruption (digital formats, internet, file sharing) in the market; a ridiculously long amount of time if you think about it.. |
But of course listeners become very thin. With such enormous choice, every single artist isn't going to have more than several thousand fans on average. But it's just numbers at work.
I think that aggregators are going to surpass majors and then we'll live in a new and interesting world. I think this is coming to Europe first.