[brucehart]

The Navy has an SBIR solicitation out for this topic, but it does not necessarily mean that it is going to put up $1MM. Phase I funding is small (less than $100k per award) and sometimes no Phase II contracts are awarded for a topic. Of course, the Navy could also spend much more than $1MM if they decide to fund multiple Phase IIs (also not uncommon). It really depends on the results they see during Phase I and the importance of the topic compared to other funding opportunities.

[cjones99]

The average is for them to fund 2-5 Phase 1 awards at $150K and then 1-2 Phase II awards of $1MM each based on the most promising of the Phase I. Given recent changes to the SBIR program, note that Phase I SBIRs can now be for $150K and Phase IIs at $1MM.

It can happen, but is rare, that they would fund nothing on a topic in the solicitation.

And as you say, compelling results out of the SBIR work can lead to follow-on work that is >> $1MM.

The short of it is, the Navy is interested in this topic, and if you have a small tech business with innovative ideas in this space there is a great funding opportunity here for you to advance your tech and grow your business.