[marshray]

I believe in the 10x programmer... because my own productivity (as measured by some random objective metric) can change by that much over short and long terms.

I agree that this is a challenge for management. Writing good computer programs for 40+ hours a week is an unusual thing for a human being to do. Doing it at 10x over the long term is just plain unnatural.

Individuals seem to require their own (evolving) set of motivations and circumstances, making successes very challenging to replicate.