[dasht]

Setting aside whether the two groups you name are likely suspects, the fact that both public identities and open institutional affiliations does not contradict the hypothesis that a government did it.

For historic precedents, see for example Wikipedia on "Project MKUltra", or the book "Subversives: The FBI's War on Student Radicals and Reagan's Rise to Power" by Seth Rosenfeld.

PG remarks that there were probably peer reviewers but none has stepped forward. Either of the two examples I gave illustrates how long and how tightly private-sector collaborators with secret government projects can keep their mouths shut.

[jacquesm]

Well, time will tell, eventually. Secrets have a habit of coming out over time there are enough hints and bits of fact here that eventually the people behind bitcoin will not be able to deny their involvement and this will likely happen while they are still alive.