[bcoates]

> what's a better way, subject to real limitations of time and resources?

Selecting at random from the applicant pool.

Any reasonably selective filter function that becomes sufficiently part of HR conventional wisdom will render the fraction of applicants who both pass it, and are capable of getting and keeping a job, unavailable in the market. The residue is people who either fail the function or pass the function and are sub-par employees. Because the feedback loop on the effectiveness of hiring practices is sufficiently attenuated, the utility of the filter going negative will not be noticed.

Treat easy, popular ways of identifying top talent like stock tips: even if they were true in the past, by the time you hear about it, it's not a good idea anymore.