[Diederich]

I've been asking my friends what they would consider the threshold for BTC to be considered a 'serious' global currency. We agreed that if it had $1T USD equivalent value, it will have arrived.

So, 22M BTC valued at $1T USD comes to $45K USD/BTC.

I have invested less than two thousand dollars into BTC. I consider it an epic gamble, but honestly, not an enormous one.

On the other hand, if BTC does 'go long', I could very well be in 'good shape'.

Here's the other consideration: the more unstable other currencies are, the less people all over the world trust their central governments with their currencies, the more likely people will move their money to a currency with no central control at all.

BTC is indeed turning into the place you put your money when things are scary. And there's a lot of scared people right now. Whether that anxiety is well considered is a separate question, and one that hardly matters.

[dragontamer]

At what point would an airplane be considered "heavy" enough to fly? Some people agree that when its about as heavy as other planes. </sarcasm>

Asking the wrong questions is silly. When bitcoins are used, that is when they'll be a serious currency. A bitcoin enthusiast should be looking at the number of bitcoin transactions and hoping it rises.

The price of bitcoin is irrelevant to its value to consumers. On the contrary, the more stable the price, the better.

[aneth4]

The price is relevant to merchants though. It's much more appetizing looking at $2B in bitcoins than $200M. Price increases drive adoption, which drives it's value, which drives price increases. That's what we are seeing now, though not in rational proportions. Price stability is likely to affect consumer behavior, though unclear how much.

[dragontamer]

No. Speculators like looking at that value.

Merchants want the opposite. Merchants right now are pissed off because they just finished setting their prices at 1BTC per widget four months ago, but today they're only getting 0.1BTC per transaction.

Merchants are receiving less and less bitcoins everytime the price goes up. Merchants want BTC to go down, so that they can sell the same stock for more BTC.

Its like the whole thing that happened to the Japanese Yen between 2008 and today. As the Yen strengthened, Nintendo lost money. Even though the Wii was selling in record numbers, Nintendo lost revenue as the Yen grew stronger.

Similarly, a Merchant based on BTC today is making 10x less bitcoins per transaction. That is BAD for business. Furthermore, merchants are now forced to consider the highly fluctuating exchange rate as part of their business.

[aneth4]

That depends on how the transactions are structured. Most merchants new to bitcoin will not hold on to bitcoin, and only use it as a transaction currency.

I can certainly tell you from a business perspective, $2B of money supply is A LOT more attractive than $200M.