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by madaxe 4826 days ago
The funny thing is that it didn't hit $203, or $201.12, but $200.

Whoever is driving this big buys to drive up the price is doing it at very predictable, very specific price points, across multiple currencies.

On mtgox GBP, for instance, it plateaus and peaks at very predictable values - £125, £130.

Frankly, I think that what's going on is there are a few traders (actual traders, not BTC speculators) who are driving the entire market. Hell, you can push the GBP price around just by buying or selling a few dozen BTC, the volumes are so low.

Guess what I'm getting at is that there's a hidden force behind this, and they're not dumb - but most of the speculators apparently are.
2 comments
tomp 4826 days ago
What's more likely is that a lot of people set their limit sell orders to 200, because the number is easy to come up with and easy to type.
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madaxe 4826 days ago
Yeah, but that still basically says "Rank Amateurs", because you should never pick the psychologically obvious point, as otherwise you'll end up in the sell queue behind a gazillion others. Always best to go in a few points below the obvious level for your sell, and a few points above the obvious for your buy.

If you look at any "real" market, prices rarely adhere to nice round sticking points, because people are at least trying to second guess what the other guys are doing, rather than just acting as though they're the sole person in the market.

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xhrpost 4826 days ago
This behavior has had me wondering about the experiences people are going to get about how markets work. This one being largely unregulated could turn out to be more cruel than the stock market and some people are going to face the cold reality of that. I remember a few days ago when Mt.Gox. got hit by that DDOS, someone on Twitter was asking how Mt.Gox was planning to compensate customers if the value of BTC fell. Just enforces your point about the experience level of people driving this market.
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imatworkyo 4826 days ago
alot of bitcoin investors, up too this point ARE rank amateurs... nothing new there

"real" markets also have computers and algorithms behind alot of what they are doing. Bitcoin does as well.

I'm sure hitting 200 was either someone setting buy/sells at a point of pride because they wanted too, or a coincidence, or people who don't care because they are long-haul investing.

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aneth4 4826 days ago
It's very common for markets to peak out at psychologically important levels for a variety of reasons. In fact, I would not call this unusual at all.

Anyway, it is trading over $200 now, so it's a moot point.

I'd be more inclined to suspect bandwagon speculation than manipulation.

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