[fakeer]

I doubt Tizen will take off. Samsung's software prowess is nowhere near to companies making and capable of making world class/sophisticated OS(or mobile OS). There is a lot of things that goes against Samsung which is in the company's DNA (culturally embedded it) and those are the things that hinder innovation and cutting edge research(esp. from s/w research perspective). (Probably the same things actually help them do great in the numbers game and on factory floor)

And even if it does. Samsung is the one vendor that actually sells Android phones - those millions of phones and I am sure Google gets a cut from it, not to mention ads and other ways of monetization. So, it is unlikely Google is denying them early code access. Other OEMs have failed on one more front - providing upgrades and this is where Samsung beats them all (except Nexus line; last 2 Nexus were from Samsung BTW). HTC makes good phones(better than Samsung IMHO, at least some models) but their users are doomed on upgrades. LG is not even worth mentioning. We have their phones in test lab and almost they all suck. We've yet to see where Moto goes and what it does. I guess Google will try to pull an Apple with Moto(though it's just a guess, I've no solid backing for this argument). Sony just keeps trying to make their devices all the pretties and they end up screwing the overall design and their s/w support is even worse than LG.

Tizen is not fragmenting Android. I also had doubts about it and talked to the guys working in that team and they explained it doesn't. They also said that Tizen Android app experience is nowhere going to be near the native Android experience.

[RyanZAG]

Great points. I think that helps me fill in a few gaps in what Samsung might be thinking here.

Google has threatened that Samsung lose support if they fork Android. They might or might not actually do it - Samsung is a major Android player. The threat is still enough that Samsung have chosen not to try forking Android.

However, Samsung still wants more control. The solution is to use Tizen with Android compatibility to try and wrest that control from Google, but while still acting within the boundaries Google have given them. If Tizen doesn't take off then Samsung can just fall back on Google Android. If Tizen does take off, then they now have enough weight to push Google around as they wish.

Google isn't worried about Tizen as they believe that Samsung will not be able to out code them, and that Android apps running on Tizen will not be as good as Android apps running on Android. While I'm sure that Google would prefer if Samsung wasn't trying out Tizen, they believe they have a strong enough bet that Tizen will fail and Samsung will come crawling back anyway.

So the whole situation now makes a lot of sense from both Google and Samsung's side. From this we can probably take away that Tizen will get the best hardware first to give it more chance of taking off. Also, Google is likely to try and add new services in future Android versions that will make it more difficult to run Android apps on other platforms. Interesting and falsifiable, in a year's time we can see if these predictions are true!

Anybody think I've got way on/off track here?

[fakeer]

>>The threat is still enough that Samsung have chosen not to try forking Android.

I can't think of anything great or innovative Samsung can after forking Android. It will let it die a sad and quick death by turning into an extended TouchWiz all over. I think Samsung knows that it's better to let Google do the dirty job.

As per Tizen, not sure about its potential. I think other OEMs, if tried together would a lot better, rather than just Samsung(or practically the only one and leading the push) would try for it, work fir it would be better. Samsung just going to make this mobile OS a bulky ugly mammoth. It looks like Bada I think. Doesn't feel elegant but what I used was not a final version. It was boot-up phase and haven't checked after that.

But this is not the case. It's Samsung and Intel and the rest - means just two of them. Nokia had a good opportunity. But then it's hardly in a situation to risk sth other than MS.

Anybody think I've got way on/off track here?

Naah, you are pretty fine. All one can do right now is speculate.

[Apocryphon]

I wonder how much support Intel is going to be investing into Tizen. On paper, a Samsung/Intel collaboration sounds considerable, but based on other comments it seems like there hasn't been much cooperation so far.

[sachingulaya]

One correction: The last nexus(nexus 4) was from LG. The Galaxy Nexus & Nexus S were from Samsung.

[fakeer]

Yes, that is why I said last two. I knew that. I own Nexus #3 and have worked on both #2 and #3 (and of course #4 is LG's and maybe #5 too) :-)

Thanks for reminding though. Maybe I should have explicitly excluded the current from from last two.

[wildster]

I just got an upgrade on a Sony Xperia J from their version of 4.0 to their version of 4.1.