[Alan01252]

My Dad did exactly the same thing. He ran a steel company with profits of around £600,000 was offered ~£2 mill for the company and turned it down. The recession of the 1990's came and completely wiped out the steel/construction industry and his company went under.

In the highly unlikely event I'm ever given that opportunity I'll definitely pick Box A, I've seen first hand just how hard it can be when Box B doesn't work out.

[agsamek]

2M for 600k profit was just a very poor offer and your father chose right regardless of what happened next. (Judged by the limited information provided)

[kansface]

Considering the company went bankrupt shortly thereafter, the offer actually reflected the actual value of the company. Its hard to know that at the time.

[stavros]

Then it didn't reflect the actual value of the company. It was a low offer, and the unpredictable events are just that: unpredictable.

The winning lottery ticket still costs $1, because you don't know if it's going to win.

[mesozoic]

Exit multiples for steel mills aren't quite the same as for tech companies.