[IgorPartola]

Another side of this is time estimates. If you have done the exact thing you are estimating, or something close to it, your estimate is only off by a factor of 2. If you are estimating something you've never done, the estimate is off by a factor of 10.

While I really hate the title of the article, I agree with the point wholeheartedly. It is much faster to deliver something where you know all the issues and have experience, than to try and research a new subject, making mistakes along the way.

[dakotasmith]

The concept you propose is revealing. If I consistently underestimate the amount of time a project will take by a factor of 10, improvements in accuracy of my estimates (boring product management details) can be interpreted as becoming a "faster" programmer (desired personal development outcome).