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Here is an explanation of some of the 'difficulty in picking winners': A lot of entrepreneurs try projects, and, right, maybe only 0.5% get an exit 150+ million. But a point is that, how many of those efforts were actually well planned? Not very many. Of the well planned projects, the chances should be much higher. Again, to pick good projects, have to use a lot of information, more than can use when just playing a lottery which, in effect, the 0.5% number assumes. More generally, the goal is something exceptional. Can't get much insight into that looking at what was not exceptional. But there are some good guidelines for being exceptional. Yes, there are not many examples among the famous IT successes. From this you can conclude either that the path to being exceptional doesn't work or that there are good opportunities. Whatever the entrepreneurs are, it's easy enough to identify the several dozen well known venture partners. Sadly, for the well known path to being exceptional, they are not and, really, don't have the backgrounds to do the evaluations. E.g., they are not much like the problem sponsors at NSF, NIH, or DARPA or leaders of significant, advanced projects at major labs or businesses. So, again, the VC business model is not following all the promising paths to success. For me, this isn't about me. |