[foobarqux]

How are you determining the accuracy of your market predictions?

[adam]

Here's a blog post we wrote a few years ago about it: http://blog.inklingmarkets.com/2008/05/judging-prediction-ma...

[foobarqux]

You don't specify when you are sampling the market. It often wouldn't be surprising, or useful, that a market correctly predicts an event the day before it occurs.