I concur--it's a flawed analogy on a couple levels (but still a good conversation stimulator) but I believe one of the hardest things to manage in a start-up is that your success isn't binary.
Yes, there are a great many start-ups that fail to get out of the gate and a small, small number that take off so quickly that success is almost a guarantee. But if you're in the muddy middle the decision to grind it out or try a new approach has to be a difficult one, and is usually a low-data decision. And platitudes are little help here with "it takes three years to create an overnight success" on one side and "fail fast" on the other.
Yes, there are a great many start-ups that fail to get out of the gate and a small, small number that take off so quickly that success is almost a guarantee. But if you're in the muddy middle the decision to grind it out or try a new approach has to be a difficult one, and is usually a low-data decision. And platitudes are little help here with "it takes three years to create an overnight success" on one side and "fail fast" on the other.