[epscylonb]

I'm a fan of bitcoin, and I think it may well have a bright future, but this recent rise over the last couple of months is probably a bubble.

New mining equipment called asics are being produced, at least one manufacturer, demands payment in bitcoin, and the price of bitcoin rises. Other people see the rising price and start thinking, hmmm should I buy an asic?.

My prediction is that by the end of the summer the price will be back to around $15, lots of people will have received their asic and will want to pay off the cost of the unit (~$1200+).

Of course there is always silk road, according the ars article last year they were doing 10,000 btc a week in revenue. Apart from SR I don't see where the demand is coming from except asics.

As I hold a few bitcoins, I would love to be proved wrong.

[ankeshk]

This is a chart for number of bitcoin transactions per day: http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

ASIC hardware sales don't even make 1 days worth of transactions (when we account for the "number" of transactions). I don't see the bitcoin price going back to where it was 3 months ago.

[epscylonb]

Interesting, I wonder how much of that is Satoshi Dice though?. Not that SD doesn't count as demand, but it's unlikely to be sustainable due to the way it bloats the blockchain.

[ankeshk]

I had read that 55% of all transactions are due to Satoshi Dice. Can't find the source right now, but it seems about right by going through the latest transactions on blockchain.info