[trotsky]

the word you meant to use is speculate, not invest.

and no, you shouldn't. there is a set of people who hold piles of bitcoins obtained when mining activity was minuscule or because they run pools, exchanges or such. The bitcoin spot price is almost entirely determined by how much this group is selling, and the general amount of demand from speculators.

While they've learned a lot about effective market control since the last time they got it up to 30 and then crashed it to 5 in an almost instant panic caused by one big seller and everyone else's fear of being left behind, it's still a fragile process.

In the end, even though BTC stands a fair chance of continuing to rise from here, you stand a strong chance of not timing the peak and holding into a big crash. Timing a speculative market you know little about, has no fundamental value floor and that's primarily driven by a small number of players is probably not the best way to try to make money.

[shredfvz]

Surely the BTC price couldn't have anything to do with factors external to the market participants themselves ... ?

Whenever the BTC price moves up or down, do you honestly believe "It's those blasted early adopters, at it again I tell you"

You also appear to assume, incorrectly, that early adopters are just itching to exchange out into fiat currencies, as if their eyes are glued to their computer monitors, just waiting for their lucky day to "cash out BIG" ... into fiat currency. Hmmmm

This goes without saying. As with PM investors, many Bitcoin holders see real issues with fiat currency, specifically that banks are a terrible place to put your life savings.

[lmm]

>Whenever the BTC price moves up or down, do you honestly believe "It's those blasted early adopters, at it again I tell you"

Because of bitcoin's ludicrous generation curve the early adopters own what, 3/4 of all the bitcoins, guaranteed to be at least half of all those there will ever be? So yeah, price movements are likely to be their influence because they're the biggest owners.

>You also appear to assume, incorrectly, that early adopters are just itching to exchange out into fiat currencies, as if their eyes are glued to their computer monitors, just waiting for their lucky day to "cash out BIG" ... into fiat currency. Hmmmm

It only takes a few. They're sitting on these bitcoins that have shown themselves to be highly volatile, and at the moment their value is increasing by the day. Sooner or later many of these people are going to be in a position where they could get several hundred thousand dollars by selling up, if they're not there already. Is a crash certain? No, but it's wise to plan for that contingency.

[shredfvz]

It's a double edged sword. The unique point of difference benefits of BTC itself remain unchanged regardless of current market price, and furthermore, should early adopters dump all old coins onto the markets all at once, the lower price would only make it more affordable for newcomers to buy at discounted rates.

Recall that early adopters of questionable loyalty to BTC already had a chance, or two or three, to cash out at very favorable rates. Many did. The result is Bitcoins continue to drift into stronger and more loyal hands. Meaning, as time passes it grows less and less likely for there to be ANY event capable of destroying confidence in the markets. If you get into BTC at this point, you should know fully well what the risks are.