[ars]

27 billion for 30 million infections? That's a very poor return on investment (if we can calculate such things for life).

AIDS is not curable, just preventable. If on the other hard we worked on malaria and TB we would prevent closer to 1 billion infections!

And malaria and TB are curable, and malaria causes anemia which makes people tired and less productive, and the cure is considerably cheaper than AIDS prevention.

I (cynically) think that the reason people are focused on AIDS is that the donor countries are worried about it, but they are not worried about malaria and TB. People donate for causes that are close to them, so it's not so cynical for an individual, but I think governments should be instructed by utility - but they are not.

[katz]

TB is usually a final stage disease that people with AIDS get. It is one of the most common ones (AIDS only destroys the immunity). When you hear someone who died of AIDS or lung infection in a high-AIDS country (e.g. South Africa) you can be fairly sure that it is AIDS.

TB can almost always be cured in healthy adults. The point being - even if you rescue 10 million people form dying from TB - 10 million would probably die of something else.

The best focus for anti-AIDS programs is probably things such as mother to child prevention (i.e. preventing an unborn baby from contracting AIDS from his mother, and providing formula milk to new mothers). The effects of this is measurable.

[michaelkeenan]

Ok, I'm not particularly attached to the idea of AIDS prevention being the greatest charity of all. As mentioned, I just checked Wikipedia to find out what the Copenhagen Consensus came up with because I'm sure they put more thought into it than the few minutes I'd allocated for it.

That said, I'm aware that givewell.org rates charities for their effectiveness. Their top-rated charity is Population Services International, which works on - among other things - preventing AIDS and malaria. "We estimate that it costs PSI $650-$1000 to prevent a case of HIV/AIDS and $500-$2500 to prevent a death from malaria; across the organization, we estimate that it costs PSI about $650-$1000 to save a life." http://www.givewell.net/PSI

If GiveWell's figures are accurate, it seems that $650-$1000 is what it should take to save a life. $27 billion to prevent 30 million infections sounds about right. If you have a cheaper way to save lives, I'd love to hear about it.