[pseut]

I use both tumblr and Jekyll, but I think it's pretty low risk that tumblr will vanish without any warning. We've known posterous would disappear for a while now. And if you point an rss reader at any blog you get a pretty decent backup trivially, so it's a hassle if tumblr disappears but not catastrophic.

But I am reluctant to use tumblr for semi-permanent content; I mostly use it for posts with a short shelf life. So maybe I agree with you subconsciously.

Edit: typos