[cs702]

All else being equal, the more people who use Bitcoin (whether as a store of value or medium of exchange), the greater the demand for it -- and therefore the higher its price, because the supply is fixed.

This means that in the long run, Bitcoin's price will be positively correlated with its adoption.[1]

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[1] My full thoughts on the matter: http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adopt...

[porter]

Of course all things are never equal. The problem with investing in bitcoins for the long-run is that eventually governments will make it illegal. Sure, they can't easily stop you from owning bitcoins, but they can ban businesses from accepting the coins, which would of course collapse the currency overnight. Governments don't like competition.

[gamblor956]

Governments don't care if you use bitcoin or not. They can, and do, tax you based on whatever income you earn, in whatever currency it is denominated. Indeed, the US, Europe, and most of Asia already have tax laws for how to report income denominated in currencies other than the government's own currency.

Not reporting income denominated in bitcoin will simply result in prison time and financial penalties measured and payable in the government's currency.

[efnx]

I'm still wondering why governments see it in their best interest (if it is in their best interest) to make it illegal. I know they can't track their citizen's activity on the network but when an individual cashes out, they would pay taxes on their earnings.

To me it seems to be a choice of what does big brother value more - money or information?

Banning a business from accepting bitcoin would be as hard as telling a business they couldn't give stuff away for free. I think they could shut down the exchange portals, but they couldn't keep people from trading goods for BTC.

[chii]

its not the gov't who _wants_ to crush bitcoins (but they will probably be the one actually implementing the measures). A currency, and the subsequent control of it, will lend lots of priviledges and power over those who control it.

Currently, the central banks (the Feds, and the various EU central banks) control the currency (by control, i mean they are the only ones able to print more of it). Now, i don't really know who controls those banks, but i m willing to bet that they are some powerful vested interests there. These people do not like the gold standard, simply because having a gold standard strips them of their power they currently enjoy.

Bitcoin, being a good candidate for a digital gold standard, will be targetd just like the gold standard was targeted in the 70's in the US of A. I really wish bitcoin could become recognized by the normal peoples of the world, but i think it can't, because there is no force behind it. The monopoly on using violence is the only way to have a currency adopted, and i don't see bitcoin getting any of that. my prediction is that bitcoin will be relegated to being a niche currency.

[dlitz]

My prediction is that Bitcoin will neither be illegal, nor will it replace the U.S. Dollar, like some of its proponents hope. Most likely, it will continue to be a useful vehicle for transferring money online.

I see it competing more with companies like Western Union and PayPal than with the USD.

[rms]

At this point I believe that intelligence interests in the USA will prefer bitcoin to stick around, because it is not nearly as anonymous as most people think it is.

[bbrian]

But it is as anonymous as those who want it to be want, no? Any links to studies on this besides the UCD one? I'd love to read more.

http://anonymity-in-bitcoin.blogspot.ie/2011/07/bitcoin-is-n...