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by strangestchild
4903 days ago
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It's a shame to see the driving/flying statistic trotted out again. My absolute chance of dying in a car crash as opposed to a plane crash is irrelevant when deciding which to take - as an individual I'm far more likely to die of drowning than of acid burns, but I'd still rather go swimming in plain old H2O. Neglecting the base rate is itself a common probabilistic fallacy. In fact the relative risk of flying versus driving depends significantly on the way you choose to assess risk: chance of death per journey, per mile, or per hour. Further, a straightforward mortality assessment does not factor in the risk of nonlethal but debilitating injury. Like all good questions, it's not as simple as it first appears. |
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