[primitur]

Run with the pack and eventually become de-marginalized on the slippery platform being controlled by Apple, or work a bit harder and gain traction on every platform you can. This has always been a strategic decision for developers, large and small groups, and both paths have their merits and pitfalls. Neither is a guarantee of success.

Also, its not as hard to "keep the compatability layer" up to date as you state .. you need to do it anyway, if you use the vendor-provided native tools. If you can do that, you can take it one step further, and maintain a very productive outer-shell over the trap-tools. That can be a very good strategy, or a poor one; all the examples you provide may be the larger failure cases, but there are smaller success cases underlooked in your argument .. MOAI, Love2D, GamePlay .. these are all coming along to eat the Native Development Devotee's lunch ..