[raquo]

I don't see how this situation is an issue of patents, really. A company that is decidedly keeping its prediction technology secret to gain an edge in a market which is entirely about being better at prediction than the other guys is not going to patent and therefore open source their technology no matter what happens to the patent system.

[geofft]

Patents exist to encourage inventions to be published, in exchange for exclusive licensing rights of the invention. Their entire purpose is to be an alternative to trade secrets. So it is fair to say that effective patents are those that are best at convincing people that they should publish their work instead of keeping it secret, and that there will be no financial impact to them doing so.

[michaelt]

Patents only offer you protection against detectable infringement. If it's possible for company A to keep their algorithm secret, it's possible for company B to keep their infringement secret.

[raquo]

I understand that, but in the examples given in this thread of CS areas that are lacking published research, it is pretty clear that companies develop technologies in secret because secrecy provides them with more value and serves as a better protection against competitors than patents would. You just can't make a financial firm share their trading recipes that have any sort of value. We're lucky they don't patent trading/financial versions of 1-click-to-buy.