[zem]

on the granularity of an individual game there's a surprising amount of luck even in the top levels of the game. for instance, i'm at best a high B-division player, but i've won tournament games against two world champions (and, on the flip side, lost to players rated far lower than me). it's the overall performance in an (ideally 15-game+) tournament that lets the best players consistently rise to the top.

[caf]

The luck element is a result of the malapportionment that the OP mentions (it's good to receive the overvalued tiles, and who receives them is down to luck).

[zem]

that's part of it, but not nearly as large a part as you'd imagine. there are ways to defend against, e.g., someone getting the X both ways on a triple letter score (the most common large "tile lottery" moment). harder to overcome is someone simply drawing one bingo after another (possibly by being lucky with the blanks and Ss), getting an early 100-200 point lead, and then simply closing the board down (both players have low-scoring moves thereafter, but you already have the lead), or having a close-fought game be irretrievably lost because you get a final rack with six vowels, or none, or an unplayable Q that hits you with a 20 point penalty and let's your opponent play his final rack out letter by letter, for a large number of points.