[mlapida]

There are also numbers that suggest the more conservative states, such as Texas, are becoming more liberal over time. I would almost wager that Texas, at it's current growth rate, could be a swing state by the 2020 Presidential Election.

[cpleppert]

What do you mean by becoming more liberal? If anything the white population of texas has become more conservative and solidly republican over time. Until the hispanic population reaches a tipping point texas will be as conservative as any deep southern state. Just based on population data that really won't happen until 2028 at the earliest.

[w1ntermute]

Many people are saying that the Hispanic population could swing the state by 2020. It's not just population data that matters, it's also election engineering. In states like Florida, no one predicted the results that we saw in the recent election because they didn't pay attention to the Obama campaign's Spanish-language get-out-the-vote effort that targeted non-Cuban Hispanics. In Ohio, Obama's victory can be partly attributed to his success in getting the black population to vote at a higher rate than the white population (a highly unusual phenomenon) by using gathering places in black communities, such as barbershops and beauty salons, as local campaign branches. There's much more to the story than raw demographics.

Such efforts didn't exist in Texas this time around because it wouldn't have been enough for this election for Obama to have a chance there. But things could be very different in 2020. Of course, it will also depend upon the two candidates and the general political climate at that time.