| 1. We don't yet know whether or not Facebook's Poke app will be successful. 2. Snapchat has been popular for a while ... why did they just start copying now? 3. Facebook has repeatedly demonstrated a desire to build in what they perceive to be as replaceable features since day 1 of the platform. SuperWall, SuperPoke, Free Gifts, and many more were eventually integrated or blocked. They've tried to replicate Quora (the questions failed), FriendFeed (they copied the "like" and the real-time feed before acquiring them), Instagram (their separate photos app), and more. -- I think the key risk here is operating in a space that can be easily replicated by the 800lb gorilla. The API is not a trojan horse. It's the platform that enables many of the viral apps to grow. Yes, there's no doubt they get intelligence from their data, but that's not the sole purpose of the API and suggesting so is ludicrous (there are plenty of other sources for data, including the Apple app store). There are also are plenty of examples where Facebook simply could not replicate some of the other companies' success despite a similar feature set. Blake Ross claims they made the new Poke app in "12 days". (He also was responsible for the failed Questions app). It's a statement that they believe SnapChat is a feature. That's not yet proven and we'll have to see how this plays out. This is step 1 (test whether or not SnapChat is simply a feature). Step 2 is to become more aggressive with acquisition offers should the Poke app fail AND should SnapChat continue to experience massive growth. |