[Grombobulous]

The US auto industry under its pro-oil policy incentives is in for a disastrous long-term outlook in exchange for short-term prosperity.

At best, it’ll be a situation where the US market is segregated from the rest of the world: US auto consumers will be buying inferior vehicles from the rest of world that are more expensive to buy and own, since they will only be viable in the US market and will only be built in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

At worst, the US is setting itself for horrendous energy policy issues moving forward. Sure, the US produces a lot of gas and oil and will for a long time, but any sort of price shock will be leaving the US and its car-dependent economy destabilized while Europe and Asia power forward with an ever-decreasing dependence on oil and gas. The US’ endless energy wars will continue to serve as incredibly expensive endeavors that other countries don’t even need to engage in.

Just look at the number of nuclear power plant projects in progress in China. Comparatively few people in China depend on oil to get to work and travel long distances, and the amount that do is plummeting.

[jfengel]

It is remarkable that a US company had an enormous lead in BEVs for a decade. Then they just kinda stopped innovating, and slid backwards.

[aetherspawn]

Having owned a Model 3 I would argue that it’s basically “done” at this point, pending software updates for better FSD.

It already charges in 20-30 min at Tesla chargers and has a practical range of around 600 kms, so super fast charging is a bit of a straw man.

Their big downfall is they lack an advertising department willing to spend $1B on pro-electric propaganda to debunk all the Trump/big oil propaganda. IMO EVs have addressed all the main product concerns, and the last ones are buyer stupidity.

[kccqzy]

You think it’s done only because you are not ambitious enough. And neither is Tesla. A Hyundai charges faster than a Tesla. Chinese cars from several brands are getting five-minute charging times. If you think that’s a straw man I don’t know what to say; a buyer wants charging to be as fast as pumping gas, and are you going to blame buyer stupidity for not delivering on that?

[aetherspawn]

But which brands last longer than a Tesla? None. That’s because faster charging wears out the battery. Charging fast is not marvellous, actually it requires a lot of self-control from the manufacturers to limit charging speed for longevity, even though most people won’t understand why.

[satvikpendem]

No, because Chinese EVs have advanced in battery technology too above Tesla.

> CATL also says the battery retains more than 90% of its original capacity after 1,000 ultra-fast charging cycles

https://www.evdances.com/blogs/news/hongqi-unveils-ultra-fas...

[ivewonyoung]

Tesla buys batteries from CATL.

[Grombobulous]

China is even doing 90 second automated robotic battery swap stations.

[Grombobulous]

I think this opinion fails to explain why Tesla is faltering so badly in China.

The products aren’t “done.” They’re stagnant.

Where is their proper 3 row SUV, not a hacked together half-effort like the YL?

Where is their passenger premium van product for China?

Remember that this is a company with a huge factory and presence in China, and they were the first mover in that market, but they’re getting eaten alive by competitors.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the Volkswagen Group is outselling Tesla in EVs. The #1 EV in Europe is a Skoda, and on top of that Tesla doesn’t make a European style city car. Small sedans like the Model 3 are really not popular in Europe, you need a hatch.

And I haven’t even brought up the Cybertruck selling a couple hundred thousand units below company expectations, that is kind of a low blow cherry on top.

[plqbfbv]

> I think this opinion fails to explain why Tesla is faltering so badly in China.

Apparently not so much, the restyle and a consolidated assistance and charging network make people prefer it over the homemade products lately, which keep innovating but you essentially need to re-learn from scratch every time (my original source article is in Italian - https://www.vaielettrico.it/troppa-scelta-poca-fiducia-i-cin... ; this is the closest I could find in English: https://paultan.org/2026/01/21/tesla-model-y-again-best-sell... )

> They’re stagnant.

To some degree, I agree. Esp. on the 800V part which could make charges a bit faster. But I think they're overall stagnant: they pushed a ton of boundaries in the first 10-15y because they had to make something people could buy and use, but now that innovation push has diminished greatly: the cars work for most people, and the range is acceptable and not such a big inconvenience that pushes people to other brands. So no sense in going axial flux motors (that everyone is experimenting with) or bigger battery capacities, or even 48V + Ethernet instead of 12V + CANbus (the CyberTruck has these, but I don't think it has trickled down to the other models).

> Meanwhile, in Europe, the Volkswagen Group is outselling Tesla in EVs. The #1 EV in Europe is a Skoda, and on top of that Tesla doesn’t make a European style city car. Small sedans like the Model 3 are really not popular in Europe, you need a hatch.

Yes, but the Model Y remains the single unique best-selling car. VW needs to put together a few vehicle models to get to the same numbers. And I think the reason is the same as with China: Tesla has always been EV only, and built assistance and infrastructure for it, while VW doesn't have a very clear direction and makes products which are perhaps slightly mechanically superior, but feel inferior on the software and UX side. A car with hardware equivalent to Tesla (which now has 2 trims and 2 battery picks) costs anyway more than the base Tesla (you need to add a few optionals to the VWs). What Tesla is lacking in Europe are smaller models with ~450-500km range.

[reverius42]

I am very skeptical that your Model 3 has a "practical range" of 372 miles. EPA range for the long range model is 342 miles, and I would expect usable range to be considerably less (since you probably want to start charging at around 10% remaining, and you probably want to stop charging at 80-90%). 0% - 100% is kind of not "practical" as it would require you to fully deplete the battery, and then wait for the slow charging at the margins (90 to 100% tends to be pretty slow).

[aetherspawn]

Practical meaning I don’t plan to ever drive more than 600km per day so if it’s 600km from A->B, and then a 8 hour charge, that’s fine by me… if I want 700km I’ll stop and charge for 5 min at 30% SOC or so

[stavros]

But the GP is saying a Tesla won't do 600km on one charge, which does sound reasonable.

I agree with you about just stopping to charge for a few minutes along the way if I need more, though.

[medler]

I’m convinced super-fast charging will be a game changer, because it will eliminate the ~only remaining downside to EVs. If Tesla had charging tech like BYD the market in the U.S. would look very different

[tialaramex]

I don't buy it. "Recharging == Fuel" is the wrong way to think about it.

Think about your phone. Do you plan how you'll charge that quickly? Do you know where you can get a quick charge at a local mall while ordering coffee? Nope, it just gets charged over night when you're asleep, no problem.

[medler]

I agree charging at home/work is best, and ideally we would have ubiquitous slow charging at apartment lots, workplaces, and on the street. But that’s not really realistic right now in the U.S., and more importantly, it isn’t under Tesla’s control. Whereas they could have solved the problem for people with less charging access by making their fast charging faster like BYD has done.

With respect to your phone analogy, if I weren’t able to charge my phone at home or at work, I would definitely be interested in being able to fast-charge it at some conveniently located business

[satvikpendem]

Yes I do get the fastest charging speed and highest battery capacity phone, which are Chinese now too like OnePlus. Once you know you can depend on your phone for a few days, it's a game changer.

[ben_w]

Not everyone wants the same thing from a car. Some care most about the price, some about the efficiency, some about the size, some about the comfort, some about the charging speed despite what you say.

If Telsa were still innovating, they'd have rounded out their offerings to fill in the gaps that are now getting filled with other brands in the world outside the USA.

[Grombobulous]

I keep shouting from the rooftops that Tesla’s lack of offerings has them completely hamstrung.

Tesla sells more vehicles than Mazda, and both brands are in a similar semi-premium non-luxury segment. Compare lineups between these brands.

How does Mazda have 3.5 SUVs and Tesla only has 1.5? (The .5 is counting the CX-70 and CX-90, and the Y and YL as essentially the same car)

Mazda is able to offer a sedan and hatchback variant of the 3.

They also have a city car in Europe, the Mazda 2. Absolutely nothing in the segment from Tesla.

And of course, Mazda has the legendary MX-5, which chugs along selling a very respectable quantity while the Tesla Roadster remains MIA.

Where is Tesla’s lineup? For being a being China-focused brand, where is their premium/luxury van? For being a US-focused brand, where is their family 3-row Grand Highlander killer? How did they botch a truck made in Texas?

[asdff]

I can’t own one because I can’t install a fast charger at my place.

[aetherspawn]

Yeah this is the kind of thing people say on a day to day basis.

[reverius42]

I don't have a gas station at my house, and yet I still own a gas-powered vehicle.

I also don't have a fast electric charger at my house, and yet I still also own an EV.

[belorn]

I have compared prices in fast-charging stations to gasoline here in Sweden, and a gasoline car get more miles for the money. The price can be up to 100x, or 10000% that of the market price that the fast-charging stations buy their electricity from.

And even with that, very few places seems to be willing to build competing charging stations that will undercut those prices. The only way to actually save money is to have a charging stations at home or at work where you pay the normal (through still very high) cost that the utility company take.

[stavros]

In Greece, fast charging is 4x more expensive than slow charging at home. Slow electricity is around 4x cheaper than gas, so you're right, fast charging makes it about even.

Good thing I only need to fast charge a few times a year, on long trips (or consecutive trips away from home/a plug).

[reverius42]

I have found fast-charging prices near where I live to be fairly competitive with gasoline per-mile. The lower maintenance costs of an EV are icing on the cake, so to speak.

But I actually do most of my charging as trickle-charging from a regular home outlet, despite it being slow; it adds about 40 miles of range per 24 hours of charging. My car sits in my driveway most of the time so that's actually sufficient most of the time.

[Grombobulous]

Most people don’t need a fast charger to own an EV. Most people would actually be just fine on a household outlet.

[realityloop]

Have been charging my model 3 from an outlet since 2020, we only need fast charging occasionally when taking a long trip

[stavros]

Not to mention that fast charging degrades your battery faster. I've had my car for a year and a half and I charged at a fast charger maybe four times.

[asdff]

Sounds terrible if that is your only car.

[Grombobulous]

Not really.

The average person in America drives about 37 miles a day.

EVs gain about 3-5 miles per hour on a household 120V charger.

You sleep for about 8 hours and are probably home away from work and errands for an about 12 hours.

Do the math: 3 miles per hour for 12 hours is 36 miles.

And even if you don’t keep up with your pace, the weekend can act as additional time to charge. Or if you drive more on the weekend, you can basically decide that you’re going to go to a fast charger every 2-4 weeks just like a gas car (or maybe even less frequently than a gas car).

Let’s say you drive 50 miles a day but you’re only able to charge up 35 miles per day at home. If your vehicle’s range is 250 miles that means you need to go to a fast charger every 15 days including a little room for reserve power.

Also, all of this is even less of a concern if you live in a country with 240V power.

[medler]

What is terrible about charging at home from a regular outlet? As long as you average <50-60 miles a day, like most people, you basically never have to go to fast chargers (or gas stations). It’s amazing.

[Animats]

> At best, it’ll be a situation where the US market is segregated from the rest of the world: US auto consumers will be buying inferior vehicles from the rest of world that are more expensive to buy and own.

That's where we are now. Here's BYD's main model lineup.[1] Ford's CEO brought a few into the US, paying the insane tariffs, and has his executives driving them to see what the rest of the world is doing.

[1] https://www.byd.international/models

[epistasis]

US automakers are already unable to compete globally even within the ever shrinking ICE share.

Protectionism makes industries weak and uncompetitive, ultimately hurting the economy of the nation doing the protectionism. The proper strategy to become competitive is to provide a small amount of protectionism so that the industry does not die, but to ruthlessly cull underperforming companies so that only the strongest survive. The continual bailouts of companies, keeping old and incompetent executives at the helm, has destroyed the US car industry.

Capitalism requires killing the underperforming companies. Until we let that happen, or at a minimum cull leadership and boards, nothing will get better. The rot is at the top.

[cineticdaffodil]

The rot is that a empire selling security can subsidize any economic policy indefinitely and is completely decoupled from anything resembling a free market forever.

[testing22321]

And Canadians will soon stop buying the inferior US vehicles (and Mexico already has), because Chinese EVs are now allowed in at only 6% tariff.

BYD are taking over.

[cineticdaffodil]

Nothing you wrote there makes sense, there is just no chain of causality in it.

[fugalfervor]

You didn't take the time to point out what was wrong with what they said, and why. So please do so if you don't want people to just ignore your comment.

[Grombobulous]

Can you explain further? I’d be happy to see some of my specific ideas challenged.