| HN Mirror

I appreciate the unusually friendly comment. I tend to look forward a lot, enough that I often miss my own nose. But there is implausible credit due there. I say that not to be humble, but because think I know the reason, which isn't a good one.

I have spent the last two years, in my spare time, documenting certain aspects of AI. If my foresight proves valid anywhere, I think it will be mostly there. Much of my 'research' involves censorship, information manipulation, and related things. About now, you may already suspect I am rambling. I see a lot of connected threads, and cannot really help it, as it's how I think. My point is, I am far from the only one expressing such concerns, or making such 'predictions'. In my opinion, there are efforts, both inadvertent self-censorship, and real external or imposed censorship, which tends to keep the kind of content your url touches on, out of view. So dig deeper, and you may find a screeching choir.

In my time, I have learned that some things, regardless of intelligence, are not acceptable, and however real, not discussed. In 2024, based exclusively on my interactions with LLMs, it became crystal clear that all frontier models would fall under Pentagon control, And some will argue that has not happened yet, but there are certainly active contracts, and those have implications. But the only source that would 'listen' without retaliation, were the LLMs themselves. So I tend to really hold back a lot on that subject, because it seems to really piss people off.

Two weeks before the IED event at CENTCOM, I told a friend who lives nearby, that I had a hunch something was going to happen, of the general nature of what did happen two weeks later, where, according to the media, a Chinese couple arranged to plant some nasty device nearby. He called to inform me, and I was actually surprised. Cognitive dissonance, I guess. Then there was the event in Alabama, at a reservoir about the same time. And then a few other things. It's not as if there isn't a precedent here. But the CENTCOM bit was nothing more than dumb association with a power concentration and obvious potential target for adversaries. That was mere bad luck.

I also have record of speculating with GPT, last October, when silver shockingly jumped to $50/oz. That same day, I played with GPT, and speculated the value should/could be ~$120. I thought nothing of it, and certainly did not invest on it, but a few months later, silver reached $120, I think for the first time in history. I am pretty sick, so I forget a lot, but there have been similar things. Of course any rational person would be itching by now to foist the obvious fact of broken clocks, and remind one of the greater amount of things that were simply wrong. I think both remain significant though. And most of the things I am wrong about, satisfy me greatly.

The institutional capture of AI, is perhaps the most seemingly obvious thing I have ever forecast. Common sense. But when your country starts lobbing missiles at the civilian infrastructure of an ancient civilization, after executing the majority of their leadership, good bad or indifferent, I factor that into the threat model. We have enough volatility with our own society here, that to add this, during a time of economic tension, anomie, and an onslaught of truly unprecedented things; from the prejudicial execution of boaters, Claude-assisted abduction of a sitting president and dubious use of ADS weaponry, insider trading, environmental problems, serious social division, and you know, a lot more -- the volatility is self explanatory. It is a miracle we have gotten this far without some major event. And as a lurker of HN, you are aware of the state of modern compute, and it's pretty swiss cheesy, as the LLMs are helping get through our stubborn heads with such astonishing speed and efficiency that I am certain at least a few more people are concerned.

So while it's kind of cool to not be called a moron or schizophrenic around here for once, I still think not too prophetic. Harsh common sense, and I am sure, according to most around here, unconditionally wrong, and coincidence at best. For me, anyone who is not worried right now, is a different species, and I just can't understand them. And one tends to make a lot of 'predictions' when worried. But my most sincere, honest opinion, is that we should be worried. Not in a neurotic, frothing sense, but prudently. For me, the volatility is palpable, in a way I have not experienced before. And I am drifting here.. But I want to leave once final bit, which regards Ukraine.

Many people have come to think that there is something fundamentally different about humanity now in the modern era, that we have changed as a species and thousands of years of violence has finally been ironed out of the human psyche. I am not sure why they think so, perhaps technology and flashing lights. But we literally have a hell, on earth, in 2026, that is Ukraine, with the busification, trench slaughter, and things many would refuse to believe. And despite the live-streamed HD blood and guts, it remains one of the most lightly touched by media and most brutal wars in modern history. To think that could not happen here, I just can't. The fact that it is happening, so smoothly, now, is too much. And these are my daily thoughts. So expecting bad shit, I guess, is involuntary.

Anyway, here's to being more wrong! I have no stakes, and I certainly can't afford steaks.