[joshuamorton]

> It will tell you something like TQQQ is not a good long term hold, when it can be perfectly fine especially if you mix in with 60-20-20 with TQQQ-GDE-ZROZ, and DCA and annually rebalance.

As someone who long-term-holds TQQQ (I am lazy) it is pretty much true that holding TQQQ doesn't make sense. It is basically unambiguously better (ie. the risk-adjusted returns are higher) to directly hold options that construct the same amount of leverage over the time period you want to be leveraged over.

[tehlike]

> I am lazy > directly hold options that construct the same amount of leverage

A lazy guy on hackernews, with knowledge on TQQQ, options.

You are making my case.

Holding TQQQ vs doing with options are different in many ways. You will get a tax drag that you need to be mindful of.

You are also not saying something that goes against what I said. The reason LLM says TQQQ is not a good long term hold is because it can go to zero or near zero due to leverage - which is "technically" true. You are saying something else.

I am also lazy.

[drivebyhooting]

Look up “nonconvexity”. TQQQ during draw down will kill your gains.

[tehlike]

Look at my suggestion to include 40% hedge so that you can buy the lows.

Also look at the chart. It did have 2000 as a terrible time, but if you were hedged you'd be more than fine now.