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by jmyeet
1 day ago
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There are three companies I am confident will survive an AI bubble popping: Google, Microsoft and Apple. A lot has been made of Google's recent earnings being cash flow negative (I think for the first time ever?). Building data centers is something Google is very good at. They've also partially or wholly insulated themselves from a collpase by using Special Purpose Vehicles ("SPVs") where the collateral for loans is simply the GPUs. Even the physical building and the land its own is leased from another subsidiary. Google is still a cash cow. I also think they may break the NVidia mohnopoly with their own TPU hardware given enough time. Microsoft too is a cash cow and seemingly hasn't bet the farm on Copilot. And Apple is a real dark horse here. They, like Microsoft, don't seem to have bet the farm on AI but also, they're in a unique position to drive a move to local LLMs with their own silicon. Their ARM CPUs use a shared memory architecture. Nvidia strictly segments the market by limitng VRAM on consumer GPUs. Apple can get around that. They just don't have the raw FLOPS to compete yet. There have been rumors they're targeting the M7 series in 2028 for a big jump in AI performance. This market is going to boil down to performance-per-Watt (IMHO) and that's going to be interesting to watch as NVidia moves up to an annual product cycle. what will the new generation do to existing deployements when hardware 1-3 years is at a severe PPW disadvantage? we'll see. Personally I just want to be able to buy 64GB of RAM for $200 and an SSD for under $100 again. You know, like 2025. |
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I think a good follow-up question is: which Copilot?
Anyway, Microsoft seems to be leaning hard into the whole "you can't get fired for buying Microsoft" thing that used to be IBM and AWS. Normies all around the world still insist on using Microsoft Windows and Office.
Anecdotally, they supposedly lost a lot of money on GitHub Copilot's inference costs, at least until June. So they'd be far more equipped to survive an AI crash now.