[erwald]

> Furthermore, export controls, for which Dario Amodei openly advocates, are already prompting China to build its own chips. China is, of course, behind the West, but not as much as you may think. Instead of adopting a Western technology stack and relying on our technology to build its AI models, China will increasingly rely on its own chips, reducing Western leverage.

China has been working hard to indigenize AI chip making since well before the October 2022 export controls. I don't think the controls had zero effect, but overall I think the effect is often very overstated, and anyway it's irreversible (there's no way China will stop its self-sufficiency efforts even if the AI chip ban is lifted; the CCP will always ensure there's a large enough domestic market carved out for every Huawei Ascend produced).

Cf. https://newsletter.decisiontreeresearch.com/p/how-much-did-u...

[tristanj]

I used to think that export controls didn't work, until I realized that China has leapfrogged the West on every technology that wasn't subject to export controls.

[disgruntledphd2]

To be brutally frank, this was always going to happen when Western countries outsourced their manufacturing.

And all of the rationales were self serving garbage, it was about juicing the next quarters numbers.

Fundamentally though, it's the removal of capital controls that has driven a lot of this behaviour, and it's amusing to me that reintroducing them is so far beyond the Overton window that it never even comes up.

[throw1234567891]

What did you expect. The West built factories in China and said “look, this is how we do it, now you do it”.