[throwaway0123_5]

> The net effect of this appears to be that we'll see far fewer, but far more elite math Phd's, potentially discouraging many young people from the field.

It seems plausible that the value of education will go down for the vast majority of fields and as a result less people will be getting degrees of all types.

Not a good outcome I think for humanity to be less educated, even if people are provided for when they can't get jobs... things like mathematical and scientific literacy, as well as history knowledge (which even STEM majors often receive via undergraduate degree breadth requirements), etc. I would expect strongly result in more informed and harder to deceive citizens.

[CWuestefeld]

A large proportion of degrees awarded today are not useful for any practical application.

But having a degree of some kind still serves as a signaling mechanism, demonstrating lots of things including the ability to "play the game". to follow instructions, and so forth.

[throwaway0123_5]

I agree somewhat, but for the most part the signal is that you can succeed in some kind of knowledge work. If AI replaces ~all knowledge work, that signal isn't actually going to be valuable I think. While I don't find it certain that AI will do that, it seems increasingly plausible with every model release. In that world, I don't think very many people are pursuing degrees.

[zarzavat]

If I were 18 I'd be sceptical about the value of degrees compared to the value of trades.

Yes degrees are a prerequisite for white collar jobs but if there is competition for ever fewer white collar jobs that's a life gamble perhaps not worth taking unless you are supremely confident in your abilities in a field.

If we're being honest, the value of a degree has been in decline for a long time. It was only being held up by STEM and even that is on shaky ground now. The days when an e.g. English degree would open doors are long over.

[cedws]

I never understood why being able to “play the game” is considered a positive signal. Getting a degree is the safe path, it doesn’t require any risk taking, and not much initiative. It’s about having the money (or going into debt for most people) and sitting your ass in a chair until you’re told you’re worthy. That idea is repulsive to me.