To my speculative thinking the downslope of this LLM hype bubble might be different shaped because of the underlying assets and geopolitical situation.
Securing data center land, contracts, water rights, and execution capacity doesn’t seem like a terrible position to have in a digital, cloud, ML, crypto, and ‘prediction’ heavy future. Especially for the big players who are also cloud providers who might capture big chunks of secondary growth even if they fail in their LLM effort (and ditch the hardware?).
The LLM stuff seems very over priced, but also Ukraine is making a million or whatever drones a year all with a need for ML-powered planning, routing, and terminal guidance. Elons space data centres seem kinda dumb, but in a world where Palantir needs to be tightly in the loop for orbital or near-orbital operations, or autonomous orbital defence... The worse things get in those ways the stronger the long-term positioning of the cloud giants to build or capture critical defence operations and associated spending.
We’ve learned Skynet as AGI won’t come from the tech, so the bubble gasses out. But Skynet as Skynets military is here, now, and the AI/cloud providers own key logistical elements, so the bubble loses gas slowly.
> The LLM stuff seems very over priced, but also Ukraine is making a million or whatever drones a year all with a need for ML-powered planning, routing, and terminal guidance
I bet Ukraine would love getting more entangled and dependent on a treacherous USA and the entities it controls from t
The White House..
The only AI-only stocks you will find are Oracle and Space-X. Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet are all reasonably diversified companies that can possibly take the loses without breaking.
The thing about this bubble is that everything publicly accessible is already a step or two removed from it. All the growing, and all the current popping are happening on those rich-people funds the article is about.