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by defactor 1 day ago
Warren Buffet way

Revolutionary technology + massive adoption ≠ good investment

Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by the growth and glamour of the industry. The airline industry since its birth has had a collective net loss, in aggregate, despite moving hundreds of millions of people.

Commodity Product, no switching costs. Infinite competition

3 comments

The airline industry since its birth has had a collective net loss, in aggregate, despite moving hundreds of millions of people.

The industrialisation essentially socializes the cost across a lot more people though, so even though it doesn't make a profit it does mean people can have air travel without it costing millions per flight for the few people who can afford it. Essentially the economies of scale from having lots of flights isn't enough to make it profitable but they are enough to make it affordable.

There's no spare money to extract from the airline industry but it's still very useful. The same could be true for AI in the long term.

Sometimes the goal of an industry is to exist rather than to make a profit, because the benefit to society is more important than profit. People don't like that though so they do a bit of creative accounting or head-in-the-sand denial around it.

I think in this case, the OP is talking about "loss" from a financial perspective. Airlines are incredibly useful for society but don't make money and operate on razor thin margins. AI will likely have a similar financial picture. Of course you'll have you Claude and Codex enthusiasts just like you have the Delta vs United frequent flyers but a lot of people just book the cheapest ticket they can find from an aggregator website.
> There's no spare money to extract from the airline industry but it's still very useful. The same could be true for AI in the long term.

Of course it could, let’s start with making the models open weight and entirely open source. Fully publicly owned and not shaped to maximise profits for the shareholders.

Oh wait, Scam Altman entered the chat and turned a non-profit lab into the next biggest IPO vehicle the world has ever seen.

OpenAI launched as a nonprofit research institution. Its announcement explicitly said it wanted to pursue AI “unconstrained by a need to generate financial return,” produce value for everyone rather than shareholders, publish research and share patents broadly.

in the case of airplanes the only thing thats the private market is the planes and the ticket, the entire system of airports, safety, navigation is state subsidized and when the market fails it gets bailed out. the oil is subsidized by constant warfare. it's just an illusion for reganomics so a few rich ppl can make a buck off of a public utility.
How does constant warfare subsidise oil? In case you haven't noticed: both the latest US-vs-Iran war and Russia-vs-Ukraine war have made oil and gas a lot more expensive than the peaceful counterfactual.
> The airline industry since its birth has had a collective net loss

True. But it has added enormous benefits to many other parts of the economy.

Airlines do not capture that value.

That is where the AI companies are. Adding value they cannot capture

Yep, and similar to airlines, the real money is in suppliers
It isn't a commodity product in my opinion. Far from it. I think it will ultimately be a monopoly or duopoly for SOTA. The mid to low end is commodity, yes. But SOTA models are not commodities.

The number of competitors for SOTA drops by a few every year. The winners make more money, get more revenue, buy more compute, train better model with compute, buy best talent, and the cycle goes.

I think it's easier to fall behind and never catch back up than people think. One disastrous training run can leave a lab months to a year behind. For example, Meta's disastrous LLAMA 4 models. Meta is lucky to have their ads business as a funding source. However, Anthropic's revenue is growing so fast, that ability to use ads as a funding source to stay in the race may not last much longer for Meta.

To me, SOTA LLM training is very much like new chip fab nodes. One disastrous node can put you behind for many years or forever. The cost to build the next chip node doubles every every 4 years (Rock's law). The cost to train the next SOTA model likely has some similar power law which means over time, it's too costly for losers to keep up. The only reason TSMC isn't a defacto monopoly for advanced chip nodes is strictly due to geopolitics.

But who needs SOTA models, really? It was necessary 10 months ago, but now?
All things equal, let's say your SaaS startup uses GPT 5.0 (release 10 months ago) and my business uses Fable 5. We have the same business goals, same talent level, same strategies. I think the chance of my business winning against yours is higher.

I can't prove it. It's just my opinion.

It's easy to agree to that, but you're disregarding that the resources you spend on the stronger model could be allocated elsewhere. Conversely, you're assuming that spending more on AI will always yield better results and be worth it, compared to spending the money on other things.

This might actually still hold true now, or or at least many actors in the market behave that way. But I'm not so sure there isn't a cliff to that effect. At some point, if SOTA models remain expensive, it'll turn into a market advantage to figure out how to get things done without depending on the most expensive tooling available.

Similar scenario, different phrasing: if your company relies on overqualified workers to deliver 100% quality, the market may still decide that it's fine to go with 90% quality for 50% the price.

@orwin has claimed that SOTA LLMs have already hit that diminishing return where spending more money on a SOTA LLM today does not add more value than a non-SOTA LLM (assuming high value tasks).

I never said there will never be a diminishing return. I'm challenging the statement that we've already hit.

Note: We're still scaling chip nodes. It's still worth it for TSMC and chip design companies to invest hundreds of billions into every new chip node every 2-3 years. This is after decades of scaling already.

I'd guess it depends on the type of business. If it's some genuinely deep technical space, the model would give an edge but even then I think luck would be a significant factor. In a monte carlo of such scenarios, the business with the stronger model might win 6 out of 10 times, but it's no sure thing between the two of us. If we were comparing two businesses building Yet Another Generic CRUD, I would guess it's closer... perhaps even a net-negative to spend money on Fable versus marketing.
Your business is spending way, way, way more for compute. How can you ignore the economic of your business? That’s pretty much what a business is about
I was thinking about Opus 4.5 when i talked about 10 month ago, but maybe i'm confusing the date, it might have been 9 month.

Opus 4.5 vs Fable 5? i think the output difference will be negligible, and the opportunity cost of paying an order of magnitude more will actually benefit my business.

Ceteris paribus, all other things are never equal.
That’s nonsense and saying “nah-ah” with Latin won’t improve your argument.

If we couldn’t isolate a variable we would never be able to argue.

Using a better model is an advantage even if only for the coders. There are a million ways to turn that into profit, both proper and not so proper but that’s the beauty of ceteris paribus: the other factors do not matter now.

> There are a million ways to turn that into profit

Mind pointing where that profit for companies consuming AI is? I don’t mean hypotheticals. Where are the proof that current AI contributes positively to ROI?

I think the chance of success of the GPT 5.0 startup is higher since they aren’t just gonna be relying on Fable to vibe code some slop saas.
There is literally no moat…
Then start your company and go compete against OpenAI and Anthropic then.

Heck, just take Kimi K3 and start your training run from that.

thank you for that great contribution to the discussion...