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by lelanthran 1 day ago
I remember when hundreds of dotcom companies were going to go broke, and they all did.

Not sure what your point is.

1 comments

Simple: None of us have a crystal ball. Trying to predict the future is foolish.

I am not saying that what we are seeing might not be problematic. I am only saying that nobody really knows. We can't know.

LLMs are probabilistic. I am too. The probable outcome of highly leveraged, loss-making companies trying to land grab with no clear path to profit and absolutely no moat is... probably failure.

As AI proponents and AI coders are quick to tell you, the probable outcome is usually quite consistent. If it weren't, they wouldn't be using AI in the first place.

It's a bit ironic that many are expecting success for companies whose only product is a probability distribution, pointing to outliers such as Amazon as evidence of probable success.