[unknownfuture]

The problem is the old saw about the market staying irrational.

You can't time the market reliably. Ultimately the base advice remains sound even if it's couched in a bit of conspiracy: diversify and allocate your assets based on your risk profile, as informed by your retirement timeline.

[neonstatic]

> You can't time the market reliably.

There's an entire profession doing that: traders. But for most people, yes, it is not worth it. No argument there. I just don't like conspiracy theories and that line of thought, it's cheap and stupid.

[unknownfuture]

> There's an entire profession doing that: traders.

Well no, there's an entire profession trying to time the market. The data is not favourable as to their ability to actually do it at a rate greater than random chance.

But.

I also don't think it's reasonable to label as a conspiracy a claim that markets are rife with cheating, insider trading, etc. Just look at the current US Presidents profit margins.

Is that systematic, organized, conspiratorial, rich v poor market rigging? No. But it would be naive, I think, to believe that the rich aren't significantly advantaged in the market in ways that the average person isn't. There is, after all, a reason payment for order flow exists as a valuable thing.