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The China point cuts both ways though. The main point from that would be that everyone's opinions are irrelevant. No point in supporting open-weight, because China is going to do what China is going to do. No point in supporting less open-weight, because ---same reason---. Yes, that can make the whole debate pointless. But seems like in that situation, might as well just speak your mind freely. Maybe things with China aren't as hopeless as you make out. I have a much less firm opinion on what China will do. They (meaning Xi) might unilaterally decide they don't like open-weights, and they'd just roll out that new policy. They might decide to keep releasing them. They might decide to negotiate something. Honestly I agree, the first two are the most likely options. Not just because China govt isn't much for negotiating here, but neither is the US either. The combination leads to low probability. The cynic in me says, there really isn't any point in writing anything, other than for PR reasons then. And given that the support open-weight models version plays better for PR reasons, if I'm going to believe one group is doing this for PR reasons, the case is worst for Anthropic's version. It doesn't get them a ban, it doesn't get a change in China policy. It just pisses off people who react on vibes. The optimist says, might as well write something you support, because even if change is unlikely, the writing is more likely to accomplish something than do harm. |