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by maxbond
3 hours ago
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If 1 in 10,000 people have a disease, then a "test" which always reports the patient doesn't have the disease will be correct 99.99% of the time. "99.99% accuracy" should be "looked at with skepticism" in that it doesn't tell you what you need to know to understand the quality of a a test for a rare disease (a classifier under conditions of severe class imbalance); at a minimum, you would want to understand it's false positive and false negative rate, not (just) it's overall error rate. See example "A": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy |
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You appear not to have understood probability theory my friend. You will never get 100% in this universe for anything. What if "its a simulation" or "a dream" arguments ensures you never acheive 100%.
Bayes probability theory will be a good start for you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem