[elliotec]

I'm cautiously optimistic that this is the beginning of a much needed correction toward sobriety with regards to AI investment. The macro effects of all the money going into AI are apocalyptic. Maybe we can take some deep breaths and move forward a little smarter if the hype fest slows down a tad. And if we're lucky, eventually be able to afford RAM again.

[dmix]

> The macro effects of all the money going into AI are apocalyptic

The doomer discourse around AI is about as overhyped as the investors are. It's two parties getting pumped up by social media who will be disappointed it's just some new higher economic tier rather than a quick boom or bust.

It always takes twice as long for new markets to fully mature. Industries need to actually adapt technology before they see serious productivity gains (including coding). For now lots of businesses are haphazardly slapping AI on everything and early failures due to immaturity are being used to project long term negative outcomes. While chip and energy development will take even longer as unlike software it's full of the usual baggage of developing things IRL (long term high capital costs, local politics, regulatory compliance, supply chains, etc).

[broodbucket]

The doomers aren't the one investing billions, so I think they're a slightly lower cause for concern than the ones significantly reshaping the economy.

[apercu]

Trillions in some cases.

[elliotec]

I'm mostly talking about incredibly environmentally destructive data centers and energy use on the current trajectory. Not even thinking about water problems, the gas and coal requirements alone are climate disasters. [1] [2]

But if it is a bubble, which many would argue is the case, an AI capex bust with it's circular financing collapse is one of, if not THE top threat to global financial stability. ~$725B combined hyperscaler capex in 2026 against roughly $25B of AI service revenue in 2025 on $250B+ of infrastructure spend. Not exactly a promising situation. [3] [4]

This is immediate-picture, I'm not talking about a singularity extinction event. Just what's actually happening right now and the trajectory of the next 4 years.

[1] https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/electricity-d...

[2] https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/energy-supply-for-...

[3] https://www.tftc.io/bis-annual-report-2026-ai-bubble-circula...

[4] https://alcapitaladvisory.com/research/intelligence/ai-infra...

[igor47]

Hmm. I'm as big an environmentalist as anyone, but I'm pretty sceptical of the data centers as eco disasters narrative. Your sources indicate that renewables already meet over 50% of new data center demand, and the demand is predicted to drive advancements in technologies like SMRs. The water use of a data center is less than a golf course. Gas and coal cannot compete with renewables on price and speed of deployment, and increased utilization of the existing grid can help cover fixed costs which dominate the cost structure, resulting in decreased prices overall even as we increase deployment of renewables.

[barrkel]

The facts don't support a real eco panic. IMO it's a proxy for middle class job security fears, displacing into known middle class shibboleths. It can be sincere, but it's motivated reasoning.

[dmix]

China managed to double energy production between 2015-2025 (including 60 nuclear reactors). On paper the west should be able to do the same, tech companies are putting huge money into solar, natural gas, and nuclear. Most of the limitations are as you mention people protesting the whole idea of new industry and energy, which is the source of most of the risk. That plus open model/Chinese competition undercutting some big US IPOs.

The long term investments in datacenters and chip manufacturing will likely coincide with with growth in demand from humanoid robots and self-driving cars, so it is likely going to happen anyway over the next decade.

It just will take longer than people expect which creates financial risk, but US capital markets are more resilient than people think.

[rickydroll]

> people protesting the whole idea of new industry and energy,

I may be venturing into aluminum hat territory but it appears that oil and gas companies and conservative organizations are pumping all sorts of FUD and misinformation into the anti-solar, anti-battery movement, period.

One of the arguments against widespread solar is that it's environmentally damaging, yet, time and time again, it's shown that solar farms increase soil moisture, improve biodiversity in plants and insects, period. If cattle or sheep are grazing on that land, the shade reduces their stress from summer heat and can also shelter them sometimes in the winter.

Again, may be complete BS, but apparently Chinese desert solar farms are increasing the moisture in the desert, making it easier for plants to grow and increasing rainfall downstream from the plant solar farms.

[yogthos]

China has tightly integrated domestic supply and a centrally planned economy. That's why China has consistently been able to do things that are simply impossible in the west.

[jurgenburgen]

Why is our economy so shitty?

[indemnity]

I had to buy an SSD and some RAM to help my son build a PC.

The SSD cost 30% more than I paid two years ago and was half the capacity (1TB). The RAM cost double what I paid two years ago, was slower, and was half the capacity (32GB).

[tehlike]

I bought 12 sticks of 64g lrdimm for about 400.

Now each stick is likely over 240$

[cautiouscat]

I hope you’re right. It does seem like we’re finally coming down off the peak of the hype cycle. I use Claude Code daily, but man I am just tired of hearing about AI. I’m tired of holding off on backing up my home server because disks are so expensive. I’m tired of HN being 50% articles about AI.

[randusername]

I'm tired of friends, family, coworkers, and neighbors being revealed as soulless time-optimizing automatons.

2026 has been the year "you're not just X, you're Y" creeped into sermons and birthday cards. I want off this roller coaster.

[BLKNSLVR]

> holding off on backing up my home server because disks are so expensive

I think there are so many people in this same situation, not just with disks (and RAM), but all of the components because of bottlenecks of upgrading one without others, that there's going to be this on-going surge in demand starting from corporate and then trickling through decreasingly sized businesses and then finally the consumer market and this could keep prices higher for longer than most people are expecting.

I recently bought some second hand ex-terminal servers to run homelab stuff. I'd have preferred to get one big-ish thing to run it all, but it was more cost effective to get a handful of smaller, lower-spec devices since that's not what people are trying to get their hands on at the moment.

[greesil]

Or written by AI. Or commented on by AI.

[broodbucket]

I'd love a flag for "Show HN"s that indicate the author actually wrote it themselves so I can go back to being impressed by them

[cppluajs]

I think at this point writing like stream of consciousness / having imperfect grammar acts like a soft signal and I am inclined to pay it more attention.

[broodbucket]

I feel for those who genuinely liked using emdashes in their writing

[grey-area]

Em dashes are not the problem, nobody cares about their use. Shoddy and melodramatic writing that doesn’t even make sense is the problem.

[winfredJa]

slow down in investment will happen only when token usage plateaus, until then companies will keep pouring money into this fire pit

[cosmicgadget]

> move forward a little smarter

Based on everything I've seen, this is an all-out sprint to whatever the goalpost is - superintelligence, AGI, singularity. Whoever is first will win, everyone else will lose.

I don't know if it's true or not, but it seems to explain the current direction of tech and leads me to believe no CEO is going to allow his company to slow down.

[andix]

At some point the "money people" are going to stop setting huge piles of money on fire.

Big tech can finance a lot of AI investments themselves, but they can't keep up the current investments just by themselves, without compromising their non-AI business.