[red_green_yell]

The only thing it might accomplish is allowing OpenAI / Anthropic to squeak out an IPO before the market realizes AI will become a commodity and the massive profits these companies are promising will never materialize. They aren't in denial about this open letter's futility in terms of actually reducing the pace of AI, that's just not their goal in the first place.

[vessenes]

I don’t think it’s clear we’ll get commoditized AI out of this research loop. The only real datapoints we have are that Chinese open weights models seem able to stay a certain amount of distance ‘behind’ released frontier models. It’s clear that the models are trained on exfiltrated data from the frontier models => we cannot currently disambiguate how easy it is to get close to the frontier in a vacuum.

I also don’t believe we have seen anything like 1% of inference demand fulfilled globally. You might believe differently. But, if I’m right, we are nowhere near some massive collapse of these companies, quite the opposite. For the opposite take to be correct, you’d need to believe that the ‘value’ of tokens will not increase significantly and that the current demand for tokens is at or near a peak.

I also don’t believe these open letters are signed by people that are all master strategists and just economically motivated. I believe instead that religion and money combined create strange behaviors and beliefs - in this case “what’s good for us could be implemented” — combined with the already endemic “what’s good for us is good for humanity.” Together we get really bad outcomes.